Severe Weather Season Outlook October 2012 to April 2013
4 February 2013
By Coleman Levin
The unrelenting rain from two consecutive
La Niña
years has now cleared and in its place Australia’s warm and dry weather returns.
The hotter and drier outlook is the result of a weak
El Niño
combined with abnormal Indian Ocean temperatures.
The Weather Channel is forecasting an increase in bushfires, temperature, heatwaves and tropical cyclones this severe weather season.
TEMPERATURE
“It will be the hottest summer in at least three years for much of the country,” says Tom Saunders, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.
“Weak El Niño conditions combined with a warmer than normal Indian Ocean will cause daytime temperatures to be above average over most of Australia during the upcoming severe weather season,” he continues.
“For
Brisbane
,
Canberra
and
Sydney
, the sun will make its long awaited return, bringing with it warmer than average temperatures and a much warmer season than 2011/12,” says Saunders.
“
Melbourne
,
Hobart
,
Adelaide
,
Darwin
and
Perth
all recorded hotter than average temperatures in the 2011/12 season and again we expect it will be warmer than normal this season,” Saunders continues.
Additional information on temperature:
Yearly temperature variations in Australia are linked to the shifting pattern of sea surface temperatures through the Pacific and Indian Oceans. El Niño brings less cloud and hotter temperatures while La Niña conditions normally cause increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures for eastern Australia.
HEATWAVES
“Melbourne, Canberra and Adelaide are at increased risk of heatwaves this season compared to 2011/12, thanks to the fusion of the weak El Niño and warm Indian Ocean,” says Dick Whitaker, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.
“Heatwaves along the east coast are extremely rare with Sydney, Brisbane and Hobart averaging less than one heatwave every 10 years. It is therefore with much confidence we predict zero heatwaves for those capitals,” he continues.
“While Perth is also set for above average temperatures this season, we expect less heatwaves than 2011/2012 which was abnormally hot, the fourth hottest on record for summer maximums,” says Whitaker.
Additional information on heatwaves:
Like temperatures, heatwaves in Australia are also linked to the shifting pattern of sea surface temperatures through the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
The Weather Channel defines heatwaves using the 5/5 rule – five consecutive days where the maximum temperature equals or exceeds five degrees above the average.
To combat these extreme weather conditions make sure your air conditioning systems are well maintained.